Write down a probability model for vote counts.
Review
- Unit of observation
References:
Original iran analysis:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/45856921_A_first-digit_anomaly_in_the_2009_Iranian_presidential_election
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0906.2789.pdf
Follow up by walter mebane:
http://websites.umich.edu/~wmebane/note18jun2009.pdf
Gelman’s take: