# Lab: Arbuthnot

STAT 20: Introduction to Probability and Statistics

## The Goal of Labs

• Put concepts into practice with real data

• Follow best practices in reproducible analyses (.qmd)

• In class we’ll work on the most challenging problems

• You likely will need to work outside of class to finish the assignment

• Visit office hours for extra help or ask on named thread on Ed

# Lab: Arbuthnot

What is the chance that a child born tomorrow is a girl?

50%?

### What evidence do we ultimately rely upon?

. . .

Vast amounts of data

## Dr. John Arbuthnot

• 1667 - 1735
• Scottish physician, mathematician, satirist
• Interested in the question of what the proportion of girls to boys was at birth

## Arbuthnot’s London

• 1710, St. Paul’s Cathedral completed
• Very few paved streets

Where could Arbuthnot find vast amounts on systematically collected data regarding births?

The church.

A photograph of a page of a book of handwritten christening records taken a church in England in the 18th century

A zoomed in version of the christening records, where you can identify that each record was a single christening.

## What is a christening record?

A Christening is a ceremony/rite in the Church of England where:

1. The parents bring their new born child to a priest at the church.

2. As part of the ceremony, the parents give a first name to the child before the child is baptized (inducted into the church).

3. The name of the child and their parents are recorded in a ledger.

John Arbuthnot tabulated the total count of names in each year that were traditionally female and male names.

#### Lab 1.1: Understanding the Context of the Data

• Learn context
• Formulate questions
• Set expectations
• Submitted as pdf of worksheet

#### Lab 1.2: Computing with the Data

• Dive into the data
• Submitted as a pdf from a qmd.

# Lab 1.1: Understanding the Context of the Data

25:00